Election Reform Oversimplifies Complex Political Reality

Losing the 2000 general election turned Dominica’s United Workers Party (UWP) into a single-issue advocacy organization: all about the election system.

            The majority Dominica Labour Party government took the issue of election reform to the masses because the minority UWP, now out of Parliament, forced it upon the national agenda.

            This is a watershed moment and calls for a reality check.

            Here’s what’s going on. UWP explains five consecutive election victories by Prime Minister (PM) Roosevelt Skerrit using one single group of variables: the election system.

            In my research to explain why Skerrit lasted nineteen years, the longest ever in Dominica,  I use four groups of variables: person, job, election system, and jurisdiction. UWP uses one—election system, over-simplifying complex political reality.

            My research finds the most meaningful variable for explaining Skerrit’s long tenure is person: the professional and demographic characteristics of the political leaders.

            Since 2000, UWP lost in the person department, Roosevelt Douglas beating UWP’s Edison James, then Skerrit beating Edison James in 2005, Ron Green in 2009, and Lennox Linton in 2014 and 2019. In 2022, UWP boycotted the elections.

            Since 2000, UWP lost in the job department: Skerrit and his government did a better job for the people than the UWP Opposition. It is not that the Opposition never defeats a sitting Government in Dominica. It is possible. The UWP did it in 1995, beating the three-term incumbent. And the Dominica Labour Party did it in 2000, winning the government from Opposition.

            Since 2000, UWP lost in the jurisdiction department. Government governed while Opposition walked out of, boycotted, and created its own Parliament, and opposed. Once a rural-based Party, UWP headquarters are now in a radio station in Roseau, the capital.

            So, what group of explanatory variables was left for UWP to scapegoat? The election system, of course. That is why UWP targeted the election system for delegitimizing.

            So what?

            My research finds the election system alone cannot explain why Skerrit keeps on winning. The person, job, and jurisdiction groups of variables must play a part. In fact, my research concludes that while ‘person’ alone cannot fully explain Skerrit’s wins, it is the best single explanation. Voters prefer Skerrit to all others.

            One critical variable of person that explains Skerrit’s success is his agility at learning to lead from experience on the job. By contrast, starting in 1995 when UWP formed the Government, UWP has been unlearning how to do politics. UWP is now a radio talk show and a pseudo law firm: all eggs in the election reform basket.

It’s easier to win election reform than an actual election, if you’re UWP. So, when UWP loses the next election after the reform goes into effect, UWP will reform the reform.

Welcome to the endless election reform cycle.